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  #11  
Old 10-10-2011, 11:35 AM
Puckhound Puckhound is offline
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Stats don't lie. Erie has the most goals against in the league with 39. Niagara is second with 38. Combination of team defense (including the forwards), and goaltending. All of this can't be blamed on Pavelka as you couldn't describe the Dogs as having a stud defense. Not enough big stay at home guys. Shwindt improved the second half of last season and we actually miss a player like him blocking shots, disrupting plays with his long reach and working hard in the corners. I can see a trade for a d-man and back up goalie being priorities. It is early without Visintin and Beukeboom, but wow the topic of this thread says it all.
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  #12  
Old 10-10-2011, 12:27 PM
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I still think the Dogs are in need of 2 more top 4 defensemen even after the return of Beukeboom along with a desperately needed good back up goalie......... Should the Dogs in a memorial cup contending year package 17 yr olds Graham & Mercer in a deal with a bunch of draft picks and bring in 2 top 4 shutdown defensemen?
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  #13  
Old 10-10-2011, 12:46 PM
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barrie..did two years ago..sent some 17 years olds out and brought in pietrangelo and some other older players..that was marty's team ..so I would not doubt something similar happens here in niagara
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  #14  
Old 10-10-2011, 12:47 PM
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If the team defence stinks...which I think we agree? Then the fix is not as much the personel - we have talented hockey players in all positions. The coaching staff should be responsible to build a team defence. Puck control and limiting mistakes is as important as big bouncers. Currently the team has zero control.

If Marty tried to trade his way out of a situation in Barrie- where did that get him? The team was bounced by a team with superior tactics/coaching. Then the team was left gutted the next year. We have to coach the kids we have to be part of a good team - not trade away Stromes to get Kuhnhackls.

Billingsley was a bust and Buekeboom may prove the same. I prefer the StJohn and Missasauga model to the Barrie model. I like Marty as a manager - he is probably the best in the league for dealing. They need on-ice organization right now and they had it with Van Ryn but have yet to see any organization this year.

Last edited by pez3145; 10-10-2011 at 01:03 PM.
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  #15  
Old 10-10-2011, 02:07 PM
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Originally Posted by pez3145 View Post
If the team defence stinks...which I think we agree? Then the fix is not as much the personel - we have talented hockey players in all positions. The coaching staff should be responsible to build a team defence. Puck control and limiting mistakes is as important as big bouncers. Currently the team has zero control.

If Marty tried to trade his way out of a situation in Barrie- where did that get him? The team was bounced by a team with superior tactics/coaching. Then the team was left gutted the next year. We have to coach the kids we have to be part of a good team - not trade away Stromes to get Kuhnhackls.

Billingsley was a bust and Buekeboom may prove the same. I prefer the StJohn and Missasauga model to the Barrie model. I like Marty as a manager - he is probably the best in the league for dealing. They need on-ice organization right now and they had it with Van Ryn but have yet to see any organization this year.
I understand your thinking but I disagree with a lot here...

1) I think the defence stinks because of the personnel. Yes, there is some talent, but not the kind we need.

Graham- Very talented, great puck mover and easily the best skater on the team and one of the best in the league. But, he can't move anyone, he can't hit anyone, his shot is not effective from the point.

Mercer- I haven't seen him play enough to form a educated opinion. But what I have seen... makes a lot of mistakes, not very fast, not physical. Basically a rookie again after all the time missed last season. Still can't believe he was a top 10 pick.

Rover- Slow, but is playing a simple game (get it out) which is fine. Don't expect any offence, but is limiting his mistakes.

Doudera- Shoulder injury again? Time to cut him loose. Won't take a hit, won't give a hit which amazes me how he can have a shoulder injury yet again. Scares me every time he carries the puck.

Beukeboom- Need to see him play before we can decide what he brings.

Dougie- Everything goes through Dougie.. Offence, defence, special teams.

Sheehan & Kelly- Not this year.

The defence needs a huge upgrade to be Memorial Cup contenders. As much as I would hate to see Graham moved, I think any team that the Dogs are going to deal with will be asking about him or Mercer. I would think that both of them would have no trade clauses being first round picks. The price for 19 year old impact defencemen is going to be high as the Dogs, Ottawa and Oshawa could all use help on the back end.

2) I didn't find Billingsley to be a bust. I thought while he wasn't flashy he got the job done. The Dogs could use two of him this season.

3) Mississauga model? Yes they were good last year, and off to a surprising start this year. But, it took them 3 years of rebuilding to get the team they had last year. They used the junior hockey re-build like everyone else. They gave up 4 second round picks and a fourth round pick for D'orazio and Desousa. They also gave up three second round picks for Shugg and Cantin. I don't think the Majors will pick in the second round until 2018.

4) Marty gave up a kings ransom for Shipley. (BUST), Fritsch for Wilson (BUST), He has made some good deals (Archibald, Billingsley) but the title of best in the league for dealing belongs to Dale Hunter by a long a large margin.

5) The only thing I agree with is... the loss of Van Ryn. He had the defence playing very well. They miss him a lot. They are giving up way too many chances, which they didn't last year.
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  #16  
Old 10-10-2011, 02:11 PM
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Someone do this calculation: how many shots on net do we have this year? Figure out the # of goals allowed that is with Pavelka's save% vs. Vizzy's save% of last year. What are the two numbers we end up with?

Pavelka save%: .845
Vizzy ('10/11): .917

Pavelka has faced 174 shots, made 147 saves. With Vizzy's save% of last year, that works out to 160 saves. That's 13 less goals allowed. Take away 13 goals allowed this year and our wins/losses could look very different.

Last edited by AlphaDog; 10-10-2011 at 02:22 PM.
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  #17  
Old 10-10-2011, 03:27 PM
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I 'll go along with fishfan; the only thing to add is to trade for someone to only get 12 games out of them is a bust. I'm afraid this will be Buekeboom as was Billingsley last year. Schwindt-Rover, Hamilton-Graham were good enough to do it last year in the back they should be able to put togther two pair somehow. To me Doudera was the equal of Billingsley and they played about as many games. Billingsley was bigger but he wasn't any more useful. I saw the 10-0 game in Mississauga at ice level and Billingsley stood out as the biggest pylon that day.

I would agree that we currently don't have any d that are not wearing orange reflective tape.

Archibald was a brilliant pick last year and this is largely where I get my opinion of Marty as a talent scout. He knows were to find talent. The difference would be the Mississauga-StJohn model means that you build a team with your talent - young or otherwise and not try and wheel and deal and hope for the best.

Missy this year is playing with only three marquee players but the rest of the story is playing as the same machine they had last year. We have all these name players who are playing pickup hockey - we need some more machinization to succeed.
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  #18  
Old 10-10-2011, 03:47 PM
61jr 61jr is offline
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Someone do this calculation: how many shots on net do we have this year? Figure out the # of goals allowed that is with Pavelka's save% vs. Vizzy's save% of last year. What are the two numbers we end up with?

Pavelka save%: .845
Vizzy ('10/11): .917

Pavelka has faced 174 shots, made 147 saves. With Vizzy's save% of last year, that works out to 160 saves. That's 13 less goals allowed. Take away 13 goals allowed this year and our wins/losses could look very different.
So you are just assuming that the shot qualities are exactly the same? I think you are getting way too hung up on save percentage as the be all and end all of stats. No stat is perfect, no stat or combination of stats can be used to predict "what if". Save percentage is predicated on overall team defense, if you face a higher percentage of good scoring chances, you're save percentage is going to be lower. All saves are not created equally.

You can't compare this year's team defense and goaltending to last years. It would be just as easy to say Vizzy's save percentage this year is .833, so if he was in net the entire time we would have only made 145 saves, so we would have allowed 2 goals more and our record could be worse (I am *NOT* saying that would be the case, I'm just saying, with the very small sample size, that is simply what the stats would indicate).

I'm not saying it's the fault of the coaches, I'm not saying it's the fault of the defensemen, I'm not saying it's the fault of the forwards, I'm not saying it's the fault of the goaltenders. I'm sure if you go back and look at every single goal that has been scored against us this year, you will probably find that there is more than one person that could have done something different to prevent that goal.

It's early in the season, there is plenty of talent within the organization, both on the ice and off, that I am not going to panic at this point and say massive changes need to be made. All teams are going to face some adversity during and all teams are going to have weaknesses that they have to work on, at least we still have 61 more games to work on it before playoffs.
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  #19  
Old 10-10-2011, 03:53 PM
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So you are just assuming that the shot qualities are exactly the same? I think you are getting way too hung up on save percentage as the be all and end all of stats. No stat is perfect, no stat or combination of stats can be used to predict "what if". Save percentage is predicated on overall team defense, if you face a higher percentage of good scoring chances, you're save percentage is going to be lower. All saves are not created equally.

You can't compare this year's team defense and goaltending to last years. It would be just as easy to say Vizzy's save percentage this year is .833, so if he was in net the entire time we would have only made 145 saves, so we would have allowed 2 goals more and our record could be worse (I am *NOT* saying that would be the case, I'm just saying, with the very small sample size, that is simply what the stats would indicate).

I'm not saying it's the fault of the coaches, I'm not saying it's the fault of the defensemen, I'm not saying it's the fault of the forwards, I'm not saying it's the fault of the goaltenders. I'm sure if you go back and look at every single goal that has been scored against us this year, you will probably find that there is more than one person that could have done something different to prevent that goal.

It's early in the season, there is plenty of talent within the organization, both on the ice and off, that I am not going to panic at this point and say massive changes need to be made. All teams are going to face some adversity during and all teams are going to have weaknesses that they have to work on, at least we still have 61 more games to work on it before playoffs.
Screw the stats... watch the games... the goaltending has been horrible.

The defence has been bad as well. But, there is no getting around it. The goaltending has been awful.

But you're right... no need to panic. Just fix it.

Last edited by fishfan51; 10-10-2011 at 03:56 PM.
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  #20  
Old 10-10-2011, 07:04 PM
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Not sure if anyone has thought of this, but I was sitting beside a Philadelphia Eagles players parents at yesterday's Bills game and they told me that the problem with the Eagles (called the Dream Team two months ago, and predicted to win the Super Bowl) is that they all believed the hype and read the headlines. They're now selfish and thinking of themselves instead of thinking "team first."

Maybe there is a bit of that with this team? Not focused on the real goal, and thinking of themselves, trying to impress the scouts, etc.

Last edited by 123 G!; 10-10-2011 at 07:06 PM.
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