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  #11  
Old 02-21-2020, 06:33 PM
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Expectations and junior hockey...those two don't mix together very well. We EXPECT that if we get the top draft pick, that person will be the next McDavid. Meanwhile, that person could go at pick#3 or not show that year at all.

Did we EXPECT to have our starting goalie get suspended for 5 games at the beginning of the season? Did we then expect our unknown rookie backup to come in and rise to become one of the CHL's top rookie players? Did we then expect to lose him for the season due to a tragic on-ice accident?

Our expectations leave plenty of gaps for surprises, both good and bad. Too many variables for me to emphatically state what will happen next year; so I'm not ruling out the surprises.


I don?t think many on here expect our first round pick next year to be McDavid quality ... that?s just silly ... he was a generational talent.

But the first round pick has to be a SOLID OHL player .... with skill and scoring ability ... whether they scout properly and land that who knows.

Also I suspect that our first round pick won?t be an offensive juggernaut next year ... very few 16 yo players are ... Thomas was VERY good as a 16 yo .... and some people on here weren?t happy with him ... lol



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  #12  
Old 02-21-2020, 11:17 PM
5 for fighting 5 for fighting is offline
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Along with surprises, there is the predictable steps associated with a rebuild in junior hockey. A perfect example is the defending OHL champions Guelph.

Guelph began their rebuild in 2015-2016 with a 13 win season, followed by a 21 win season, then a 30 win season - each year adding and subtracting to their young core - until eventually going all in to win an OHL championship in the 2018-2019 season.
I think comparing Guelph to Niagara would be fair as both teams traded away the same number of draft picks in an effort to win the championship. The difference is Guelph is having a more than respectable year one of rebuilding while the IceDogs are by far the worst team now in the OHL.

But what surprises me more is the difference in the number of quality young players each team has.

Guelph picks from the 2018 draft (now 17 year olds) in their lineup: 1st round, 2nd round, 4th round, 5th round, 6th round, 7th round, 8th round (they also began the season with their 3rd round pick in their lineup but traded him away before the trade deadline.)

Niagara picks from the 2018 draft (now 17 year olds) in their lineup: 4th round, 4th round, 5th round, 7th round, 10th round.

Guelph picks from the 2019 draft (now 16 year olds) in their lineup: 1st round, 2nd round, 3rd round, 5th round

Niagara picks from the 2019 draft (now 16 year olds) in their lineup: 1st round, 3rd round, 8th round

So Guelph was able to make many big trades and win a championship without sacrificing their top 2018 drafted players or their 2019 draft picks. On the other hand, Niagara traded away their only top 2018 drafted player and some of their top 2019 draft picks, which is why Niagara is in terrible shape for this season and likely next season.

Last edited by 5 for fighting; 02-21-2020 at 11:56 PM.
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  #13  
Old 02-21-2020, 11:34 PM
5 for fighting 5 for fighting is offline
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As well, look at the picks Guelph vs Niagara had in the 2019 draft after last year’s trade deadline.

Guelph: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15
Niagara: 1, 4, 6, 7, 8, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 15

Niagara then realized that only having a 1st and 4th would be a huge mistake when they needed this draft to start their rebuild. So they traded their 4th round pick in 2019, 3rd round pick in 2020 and third round pick in 2024 to Kitchener for a single third round pick in 2019. So essentially they traded away a 4th round pick and two 3rd round picks for one third round pick. While that trade was necessary it was also one of the most unfair trades in IceDogs history. In the end Niagara still had only 3 of their top 6 picks while Guelph had 7 picks in the top 6 rounds.

It just seems like the IceDogs did a very poor job planning for their future. Now they are paying for it and I don't think things are going to get much better next year.

Last edited by 5 for fighting; 02-21-2020 at 11:54 PM.
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  #14  
Old 02-22-2020, 12:02 AM
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I think comparing Guelph to Niagara would be fair as both teams traded away the same number of draft picks in an effort to win the championship. The difference is Guelph is having a more than respectable year one of rebuilding while the IceDogs are by far the worst team now in the OHL.
.
I never really thought to compare those two teams but I guess in some ways they are similar but also very different?

I was actually using Guelph more so as an example of the predictable path a rebuilding team takes going from the bottom to the top. Specifically the progression of wins - and the adding and subtracting of core players that occurs throughout that process.

From that first year of Guelph’s rebuild (2015-2016) only two players (N. Schnarr and I. Ratcliffe) were still on the roster of the 2018-2019 championship team. A lot of quality players where added (through the draft and trades) while some graduated or traded away.

This IceDogs rebuild will have more than two of its current players on the roster in the go for it years and definitely more high draft picks they will use to draft quality players and to use for trades this time around - so they can avoid that situation of trading away their young players needed to restart the next rebuild. In that respect they will be similar to Guelph this time around.

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Last edited by Blacksox; 02-22-2020 at 06:59 AM.
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  #15  
Old 02-22-2020, 08:11 AM
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As well, look at the picks Guelph vs Niagara had in the 2019 draft after last year?s trade deadline.

Guelph: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15
Niagara: 1, 4, 6, 7, 8, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 15

Niagara then realized that only having a 1st and 4th would be a huge mistake when they needed this draft to start their rebuild. So they traded their 4th round pick in 2019, 3rd round pick in 2020 and third round pick in 2024 to Kitchener for a single third round pick in 2019. So essentially they traded away a 4th round pick and two 3rd round picks for one third round pick. While that trade was necessary it was also one of the most unfair trades in IceDogs history. In the end Niagara still had only 3 of their top 6 picks while Guelph had 7 picks in the top 6 rounds.

It just seems like the IceDogs did a very poor job planning for their future. Now they are paying for it and I don't think things are going to get much better next year.


And Cato has not exactly been very good ... I have not been terribly impressed with him ... considering we gave up a 4th 3rd and a 3rd to draft him ... I said at the time that was an overpayment and it is looking like it was ...




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  #16  
Old 02-22-2020, 08:18 AM
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And Cato has not exactly been very good ... I have not been terribly impressed with him ... considering we gave up a 4th 3rd and a 3rd to draft him ... I said at the time that was an overpayment and it is looking like it was ...




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I agree with you that they overpaid for Cato. And I was hoping for more. Next year will be the year for me to judge his talent.
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  #17  
Old 02-22-2020, 08:44 AM
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I think comparing Guelph to Niagara would be fair as both teams traded away the same number of draft picks in an effort to win the championship. The difference is Guelph is having a more than respectable year one of rebuilding while the IceDogs are by far the worst team now in the OHL..
You got me thinking if there was a team whose rebuild was similar to the last one by the IceDogs. Hamilton maybe? They traded away their 1st round pick Connor McMichael and if I remember correctly a few other high picks from the previous year. Hamilton also went into that playoff with question marks surrounding their goaltending.

This IceDogs rebuild has started very differently - a good young core of players along with lots of draft picks they can use to build and add on to. This has been a tough year but better years ahead.
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  #18  
Old 02-22-2020, 09:14 AM
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Kingston did it! They passed us last night!
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Old 02-22-2020, 09:19 AM
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Kingston did it! They passed us last night!
North Bay next.
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Old 02-22-2020, 09:41 AM
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And Cato has not exactly been very good ... I have not been terribly impressed with him ... considering we gave up a 4th 3rd and a 3rd to draft him ... I said at the time that was an overpayment and it is looking like it was ...




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I think heíll be fine he looks like a 16 year old rookie right now no surprise letís see what happens to his next year
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