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  #41  
Old 10-21-2019, 11:03 AM
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As much as everyone knocks the Miletic trade, I think we got a great asset in him. He taught the young guys hard work and helped us make a strong push in the playoffs and lost to the team that won the memorial cup. As a fan it was great to watch that run. Last year we got some bad luck because if we had Ham and Lochead we would not have needed Paquette and Bassard allowing us to go for Suzuki.
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  #42  
Old 10-21-2019, 11:29 AM
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As much as everyone knocks the Miletic trade, I think we got a great asset in him. He taught the young guys hard work and helped us make a strong push in the playoffs and lost to the team that won the memorial cup. As a fan it was great to watch that run. Last year we got some bad luck because if we had Ham and Lochead we would not have needed Paquette and Bassard allowing us to go for Suzuki.
They could of got someone with a good work ethic for a 7th round pick. There was no need to spend those kind of assets in non "go for it year". It was an unnecessary mismanagement of assets. They were going to lose in the second round with or without Sam.
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  #43  
Old 10-21-2019, 12:57 PM
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Originally Posted by fishfan51 View Post
You're using Miletic's OA numbers VS Lodnia's 19 year old season numbers. We don't know what Lodnia OA's numbers are/will be.



The fair comparison is what they did at the same age. In their respective 19 year old seasons, Lodnia had better numbers than Miletic.



I realize that Miletic had a very good OA year, but I think it's safe to assume that Lodnia will out perform his numbers from last year as well.



Numbers are fun, they can be spun to help both sides of any discussion.

Bravo a voice of reason ...

Felt like posting a similar response last night but didn’t need the response that would surely follow. Lol

Entering their OA seasons Lodnia was clearly the better player than Militec. Blacksox go ahead and crunch the numbers see what you come up with. It’s pretty clear. Look at their OHL careers PRIOR to starting their OA seasons ...

Entering their OA seasons pro scouts also felt Lodnia was better than Militec since Lodnia was a signed 3rd round pick in his draft year while Militec went undrafted and signed an ELC as an OA. Good for him to land a pro contract.

Entering their OA seasons Lodnia was a bubble AHL player and Militec was in the OHL.

FF51 - is it reasonable to conclude that the Icedogs should get back AT LEAST what they gave up for Militec, in any trade involving Lodnia?
IMO they should get even more back.

Let’s see the return JB gets ... it will be a good judge of his buying and selling abilities ...



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  #44  
Old 10-21-2019, 01:14 PM
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Originally Posted by fishfan51 View Post
You're using Miletic's OA numbers VS Lodnia's 19 year old season numbers. We don't know what Lodnia OA's numbers are/will be.

The fair comparison is what they did at the same age. In their respective 19 year old seasons, Lodnia had better numbers than Miletic.

I realize that Miletic had a very good OA year, but I think it's safe to assume that Lodnia will out perform his numbers from last year as well.

Numbers are fun, they can be spun to help both sides of any discussion.
No I’m NOT comparing OA numbers vs Lodnia 19 year old numbers! Take your time and read the post again. Lodnia still has to post Miletic/Hancock/Luchuk type numbers to get a similar return - that’s the point! You do know what happens when one feels it is safe to “assume” something?


So if they are trading Lodnia today - can they tell a GM “we are just going to assume that Lodnia will put up top 5 numbers this year so that is the value of the return we want back”.

Good luck with that one!

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Last edited by Blacksox; 10-21-2019 at 01:18 PM.
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  #45  
Old 10-21-2019, 01:55 PM
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No I’m NOT comparing OA numbers vs Lodnia 19 year old numbers! Take your time and read the post again. Lodnia still has to post Miletic/Hancock/Luchuk type numbers to get a similar return - that’s the point! You do know what happens when one feels it is safe to “assume” something?


So if they are trading Lodnia today - can they tell a GM “we are just going to assume that Lodnia will put up top 5 numbers this year so that is the value of the return we want back”.

Good luck with that one!

***
Are you suggesting that GM's are not projecting a players upcoming production when in trade negotiations? You don't think they look at improvement from year to year? Do you think it's possible that they see the trend of improvement every year and expect it to continue? Do you think they might use those basic analytics during negotiations? Why wouldn’t a team selling a player point at last years numbers without arguing that with another year of experience at the junior level that the numbers would continue to go up? Projections and analytics aren't assumptions... they're negotiating tools.

Last edited by fishfan51; 10-21-2019 at 02:06 PM.
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  #46  
Old 10-21-2019, 02:14 PM
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Are you suggesting that GM's are not projecting a players upcoming production when in trade negotiations? You don't think they look at improvement from year to year? Do you think it's possible that they see the trend of improvement every year and expect it to continue? Do you think they might use those basic analytics during negotiations? Why wouldnít a team selling a player point at last years numbers without arguing that with another year of experience at the junior level that the numbers would continue to go up? Projections and analytics aren't assumptions... they're negotiating tools.
I believe what Iím saying is very clear. Hancock, Luchuk and Miletic all increased their trade value as a result of their OA scoring abilities.

Lodniaís current value, based on last year, is two seconds and maybe a 3rd. If however, he shows that he can score at the rate of a top 5 scorer (1.5 ppg) his value will go up. Not sure why this is even a discussion point?

His production to date has not been that of a top 5 scorer - but maybe he does that this year, however, you canít assume or trade him based on a prediction. Not sure that I can spell that out any clearer.
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  #47  
Old 10-21-2019, 02:41 PM
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I believe what Iím saying is very clear. Hancock, Luchuk and Miletic all increased their trade value as a result of their OA scoring abilities.

Lodniaís current value, based on last year, is two seconds and maybe a 3rd. If however, he shows that he can score at the rate of a top 5 scorer (1.5 ppg) his value will go up. Not sure why this is even a discussion point?

His production to date has not been that of a top 5 scorer - but maybe he does that this year, however, you canít assume or trade him based on a prediction. Not sure that I can spell that out any clearer.
That's where our opinions differ. If you can't trade based on assumptions or predictions, why would anyone ever trade for a 16 yr old?
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  #48  
Old 10-21-2019, 02:51 PM
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That's where our opinions differ. If you can't trade based on assumptions or predictions, why would anyone ever trade for a 16 yr old?
What you are saying is that - Lodniaís trade value right now, after 1 game as an OA, should be that of a projected 100 point player - and therefore will be the exact same return if at the midway point Lodnia is actually on pace for 100 points. That does not make sense

Question: For the record what is Lodnia worth right now? I already posted mine.
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  #49  
Old 10-21-2019, 03:24 PM
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What you are saying is that - Lodniaís trade value right now, after 1 game as an OA, should be that of a projected 100 point player - and therefore will be the exact same return if at the midway point Lodnia is actually on pace for 100 points. That does not make sense

Question: For the record what is Lodnia worth right now? I already posted mine.
Since we don't agree that Miletic is a comparable, I don't see the point in furthering the discussion. I'm not going to convince you and vice versa. But, I agree with Strohs that JB needs to get back what he paid for Miletic. The Dogs paid up for half a season, acquiring Lodnia now would give a team almost a full season.

One of the best things about this site is the ability to disagree and discuss. But, we're just going round and round. On to something else.

Cheers.
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  #50  
Old 10-21-2019, 03:32 PM
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Originally Posted by fishfan51 View Post
Since we don't agree that Miletic is a comparable, I don't see the point in furthering the discussion. I'm not going to convince you and vice versa. But, I agree with Strohs that JB needs to get back what he paid for Miletic. The Dogs paid up for half a season, acquiring Lodnia now would give a team almost a full season.

One of the best things about this site is the ability to disagree and discuss. But, we're just going round and round. On to something else.

Cheers.
Not what you are holding JB to. You as a GM, what is Lodnia worth right now? What are you willing to pay or what would you accept?
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